A Peculiar Case of North Korean Succession: What Should We Expect?
Illustration: Krizia Angelina
The speculation of the death of Kim Jong-Un has been both a shock and a sensation throughout the past few weeks. The speculation first came onto surface on 15 April when he did not attend the birth anniversary of his late grandfather and founder of North Korea, Kim Il-Sung. The speculation then went wild after KCNA, a North Korean state media, reported that Kim Jong-Un was last seen in a meeting on 11 April. Moreover, South Korean online newspaper Daily NK suggested that Kim Jong-Un might be absent from his grandfather’s anniversary due to a health problem caused by excessive smoking, weight problems, and overwork. The news quickly became an international headline. The speculation was disputed when North Korean news agency Rodong Sinmun revealed on 27 April that Kim Jong-Un appeared at a factory in Samjiyon, North Korea. He was reportedly taking shelter from the COVID-19 pandemic rather than dying. Later on 4 May, Ji Seong-ho, a North Korean defector who became a member of parliament (MP) in South Korea, apologized for helping to spread unreliable news from a source he could not disclose.
Although Kim Jong-Un is still alive and well, the speculation of his death sparked a question, “Who would succeed him if he actually died?” Despite bearing an official name of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the succession process that has been going on in North Korea is somewhat hereditary. When Kim Il-Sung, the founder and first leader of North Korea passed away in 1994, the leadership position was passed to his son, Kim Jong-Il. And after Kim Jong-Il himself passed away in 2011, his son, Kim Jong-Un, rose to power. Considering the history, it is expected that someone from the Kim family will replace Kim Jong-Un when he dies. But who would that be?
Sue Mi Terry from the Council on Foreign Relation (CFR) argued that multiple power polarities and a coalition leadership developed in North Korea after Kim Jong-Il’s death, resulting in Jang Song-Taek, Kim Kyong-Hui, and Kim Jong-Un becoming the triangular power that oversees North Korea. Jang Song-Taek was the son-in-law of Kim Il-Sung and the vice chairman of the National Defense Commission until he was executed in 2013 by a firing squad under Kim Jong-Un’s over the charges of factionalism, corruption, and misbehavior conduct. Jang Song-Taek’s wife and Kim Il-Sung’s only daughter, Kim Kyong-Hui, currently serves as the secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK)—the country’s ruling party. Despite Kim Kyong-Hui’s power, her probability to be the leader of North Korea has become very unlikely in the aftermath of her husband’s execution.
Kim Jong-Un is believed to have three children, but as they are still small, other Kim family members will be more likely to replace him. There is limited verified information regarding Kim Jong-Un’s older half-sister, Kim Sol-Song. And her current whereabouts and capacity in the North Korean government are unknown. Kim Jong-Un’s older brother, Kim Jong-Chul, is seen as pro-Western because he often showed up at Eric Clapton’s concert, which prompted The Washington Post to call him a “megafan”. Kim Jong-Chul was also perceived as less macho than Kim Jong-Un by their late father, and thus lowering his chance as a successor. This left North Korea with Kim Yo-Jong and Kim Han-Sol as potential candidates to replace Kim Jong-Un.
Kim Yo-Jong is Kim Jong-Un’s younger sister who currently serves as First Deputy Director and de facto leader of the Propaganda and Agitation Department of the WPK. She is seen to be the embodiment of Kim Jong-Un’s alter ego as she is very close to him, and even attended the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Olympics to represent him. Kim Yo-Jong was also Kim Jong-Il’s favorite and called by her father “Princess Yo Jong” and “Sweet Yo Jong”.
Meanwhile, Kim Han-Sol is the son of Kim Jong-Un’s late older half brother, Kim Jong-Nam. Kim Jong-Nam was assassinated in Malaysia in 2017, allegedly under Kim Jong-Un’s order. His son, Kim Han-Sol, appeared on a broadcast from The New York Times in the same year. Kim Han-Sol has been living abroad for most of his life and is heavily westernized . He is open-minded and seems ready to embrace the reunification of North and South Korea. Due to his upbringing, Kim Han-Sol easily becomes the Western’s choice for North Korea’s leader.
What might happen to North Korea in the future varies depending on who would replace Kim Jong-Un as leader. If Kim Han-Sol was chosen to replace his uncle, it could be perceived as the Western’s accomplishment in North Korea. Whether or not Kim Han-Sol was elected willingly by Kim Jong-Un (as coup chance should be always counted), it could be a sign that North Korea is ready to open up and engage in the global system. The Western order would no longer struggle to make North Korea change its alignment as Kim Han-Sol, with his western education background, is expected to put liberalism on deck for the country to follow. China, on the other hand, might potentially lose their proxy state in East Asia. Consequently, they would have to reinforce the communist faction in the region as to not losing their influence. Kim Han-Sol’s appointment could also create feud in the Kim family, which might lead to a civil war. If the civil war happened and threatened other nations’ security, South Korea, as the closest neighbor, would prepare their army. In this scenario, the next Korean War would be Kim Han-Sol and his western allies (the United States [US], South Korea, and Japan) against the communist faction, which is potentially led by Kim Yo-Jong and supported by China and possibly Russia.
In contrast, experts suggested that the safest option for North Korea is to choose Kim Yo-Jong as their next leader. If Kim Yo-Jong was installed as Kim Jong-Un’s successor, the status quo might keep the current situation intact. And due to her close relationship with Kim Jong-Un, Kim Yo-Jong would be more likely to continue what her brother has planned. For example, under Kim Yo-Jong’s leadership, the nuclear ambition could still be on the table and on schedule. However, her sex might be a problem since North Korea is a chauvinist country which favors male leadership.
Whether Kim Yo-Jong or Kim Han-Sol is chosen to replace Kim Jong-Un, both scenarios end in inevitable devastation for North Korea as the power struggle in the country continues. This is in line with experts’ prediction about the collapse of North Korea in a change of leadership. This prediction, however, still needs to be taken cautiously considering the high level of margin of error caused by North Korean information restriction.
In conclusion, North Korea is now on the edge of a crisis caused by succession issue, unclear COVID-19 situation, costly nuclear research, and starvation. For the most part, the succession issue seems the least important to be addressed. The North Korean people have already been in a poor state since Kim Il-Sung’s regime. As the crisis is far from end, the people’s condition and well-being are what need to come first.