The Strait of Malacca Amidst Geopolitical Ripples

A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz rarely stays in the Persian Gulf. It quickly travels across the Indian Ocean toward another chokepoint thousands of kilometres away: the Strait of Malacca. For decades, Hormuz has been the world’s most sensitive energy corridor, with nearly one-fifth of global oil consumption passing through this narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Major exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran and the United Arab Emirates rely on it to move crude oil to global markets.

When tensions escalate—as in the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel—the effects ripple across the global economy: tanker traffic becomes uncertain, insurance premiums surge, and shipping companies begin reconsidering their routes. Yet the story does not end in the Gulf. Oil leaving Hormuz does not simply disperse into the global market; most of it continues eastward through the Indian Ocean before passing another narrow gateway that connects the Middle East to Asia—the Strait of Malacca.

Few sea lanes in the world have a pulse as close to Indonesia as the Strait of Malacca. Every day, thousands of merchant vessels pass through the narrow waters that stretch between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. From tankers carrying crude oil to container ships transporting a variety of global goods, everything flows through this sea lane. For Asia, the Strait of Malacca is more than just a shipping lane. It is one of the main arteries of global trade—a route connecting the Indian Ocean with the Pacific and supporting the movement of energy and goods for many countries.

However, this open route for global trade is also increasingly influenced by regional geopolitical dynamics. In particular, the escalating strategic rivalry between the United States and China has increasingly viewed the Indo-Pacific through a security lens. In this context, stability in the Strait of Malacca has become increasingly crucial, not only for the countries directly bordering the strait, but also for the many nations whose economies depend on the smooth flow of this trade route. Even China is no exception, especially since Beijing likely monitors the current development in the Persian Gulf closely for China’s own Taiwan ambition.

The “Malacca Dilemma”

For China, the Strait of Malacca holds immense strategic significance. The majority of the country's energy imports—particularly oil from the Middle East and Africa—are transported through the sea lanes that pass through this strait before reaching East Asian waters. Many analysts estimate that more than half of China's energy supply relies on this shipping lane.

This dependence has given rise to a strategic concern often referred to as the Malacca Dilemma. This term was coined by former Chinese President Hu Jintao in 2003 and refers to China's vulnerability to potential disruptions to energy and trade routes passing through the Strait of Malacca. In the event of a geopolitical crisis or major conflict in the region, this narrow passage could theoretically become a pressure point for China. Therefore, Beijing has sought various ways to reduce this dependence over the past two decades—from building overland energy pipelines to developing alternative trade routes.

Nevertheless, the Strait of Malacca remains the most efficient route for Chinese trade and energy. This makes the strait's stability crucial not only for Southeast Asian countries but also for the broader security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific. As such, Indonesia must pay closer attention to this Chinese dilemma.

Indonesia's geostrategy at the heart of maritime routes

Indonesia's geographical position as an archipelagic nation that controls key sea lanes such as the Straits of Malacca, Sunda, Makassar, and Lombok gives Jakarta an often-underestimated strategic influence in relations with China, as the majority of Chinese trade between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea passes through Indonesian waters.

Because access through Indonesian waters is crucial to the Chinese economy, particularly for energy and import-export goods, Beijing needs to maintain good relations with Jakarta to keep these routes open. This gives Indonesia leeway in negotiating its foreign policy towards China, including on sovereignty issues in the South China Sea, without undue fear of severing bilateral economic ties.

That is to say, in a scenario of major tensions such as war in East Asia, China's dependence on Indonesian sea lanes could make Beijing pay increased attention to Indonesia's political decisions regarding maritime security and regional policy.

For this reason, Jakarta must not forget that, in such a bustling waterway, clarity of information is often key to stability. Maritime activity—whether naval patrols, military exercises, or the movement of large vessels—can easily be misinterpreted without adequate communication. This is where the concept of maritime transparency becomes relevant. Transparency does not necessarily mean disclosing all strategic information, but rather ensuring that important maritime activities do not cause misunderstandings among countries with interests in the region.

For Indonesia, this kind of transparency has very practical implications. As a country situated along one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, understanding what is happening in the surrounding seas is crucial to maintaining maritime security stability. This approach also aligns with the tradition of Southeast Asian diplomacy, which has traditionally emphasized

trust-building and dialogue over open confrontation.

Regardless, this responsibility cannot be carried out alone. The sea lanes connecting so many countries require a greater level of coordination among regional countries.

Jakarta Treaty and opportunities for maritime cooperation

It is in this context that the security cooperation between Indonesia and Australia that was signed in February 2026—also referred to as the Jakarta Treaty—is interesting to observe. This agreement opens up space for both countries to strengthen various forms of security cooperation, including in the maritime sector. Thus, several practical steps can be taken to support stability around the Strait of Malacca.

First, increase the exchange of information on maritime activity. By sharing vessel monitoring data, shipping traffic patterns, and potential risks at sea, Indonesia and Australia can strengthen a shared understanding of security developments in the region.

Second, increase coordination of maritime patrols in waters adjacent to major trade routes. Such patrols are not aimed at confronting any particular country, but rather at ensuring the safety of navigation, preventing illegal activity at sea, and ensuring proper monitoring of maritime activity.

Third, establish a more regular maritime security consultation mechanism between the two countries. Such a forum could provide a space for Indonesia and Australia to exchange views on regional security developments and align measures to address potential risks in vital trade routes.

Fourth, hold joint exercises based on maritime crisis scenarios. These exercises could include simulations of handling major ship accidents, disruptions to shipping lanes, or other emergencies at sea. Through such exercises, the two countries can develop more effective communication procedures and enhance readiness for coordination in the event of a situation requiring a rapid response.

These steps should not be viewed in a confrontational framework. Instead, such cooperation can help keep vital sea lanes safe and open for many countries.

Regional stability starts from the sea

Ultimately, stability in the Strait of Malacca is not solely determined by the dynamics of great power competition. It is also influenced by how countries in the region manage security in the surrounding sea lanes.

For Indonesia, maintaining stability in these waters means safeguarding one of the arteries of global trade. Safe and predictable sea lanes are not only in the national interest but also crucial for regional economic stability. Amidst the increasingly complex Indo-Pacific security landscape, simple efforts like information sharing, maritime coordination, and building trust between nations may seem technical. Yet, it is precisely from such steps that regional stability is often built.

Omar Rasya Joenoes is a member of INADIS Experts also a Research Fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies. He recently finished his doctoral student in the Department of Political Science at Universität Wien.